Cause and consequence: a web of reasons and results
Cause and consequence is about why things happened and what followed.
Historians build explanations out of several reasons and several results, and show how these connect.
Causes and consequences are multiple and interrelated, and they work over different timescales.
Long-term causes are conditions that build up over years.
Short-term causes are events close to the moment that set things in motion.
An example: Europe in 1914
Long-term causes included two rival blocs of alliances and understandings (Germany, Austria-Hungary and Italy on one side; Britain, France and Russia on the other), the Anglo-German naval race and nationalist tension in the Balkans.
The short-term trigger was the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand, heir to the Austro-Hungarian throne, in Sarajevo on 28 June 1914.
The point is how these interacted.
The assassination led Austria-Hungary to declare war on Serbia on 28 July.
Russia mobilised in support of Serbia, Germany declared war on Russia and France, and Britain entered on 4 August after Germany invaded Belgium.
The alliances turned a regional crisis into a continental war within a week.
Consequences are just as tangled.
In the short term there were millions of deaths.
In the long term four empires (the German, Austro-Hungarian, Russian and Ottoman) collapsed, and the peace settlement of 1919 shaped the next twenty years.
A consequence of one event often becomes a cause of the next.
- Cause: a reason why an event or development happened; usually one of several linked reasons.
- Consequence: a result of an event, which may be short-term or long-term, and intended or unintended.
- Long-term cause: a condition that built up over a long period and made an event possible or likely.
- Short-term cause (trigger): an event close in time that set the outcome in motion.
Explain why a general European war broke out in 1914.
1. Thesis. The war resulted from the interaction of long-term alliance commitments with a short-term crisis, not from the assassination alone.
2. Evidence. Sort the causes: alliances, the naval race and Balkan nationalism (long-term); the assassination and Austria-Hungary's declaration of war on Serbia (short-term).
3. Link them. Show the mechanism: each declaration drew in an ally, so a local war spread to Russia, Germany, France and Britain between 28 July and 4 August.
4. Counter-argument. Some historians argue that the decisions of a few leaders in July 1914 mattered more than the alliances, since alliances did not force any state to fight.
5. Judgement. Conclude which view is stronger and why.
Outcome: an explanation that ranks and connects causes instead of listing them.
Explain the chain of consequences that the Wall Street Crash of October 1929 had for Germany.
1. Short-term. American lenders recalled loans that Germany had relied on since the Dawes Plan of 1924; businesses failed.
2. Medium-term. Unemployment rose to about six million by early 1932.
3. Long-term (a consequence becoming a cause). Economic despair helped the Nazi vote rise from 2.6% in 1928 to 18.3% in 1930 and 37.3% in July 1932.
Answer: the crash's economic consequences became political causes, feeding the conditions in which the Nazis gained support.
Paper 2 Section A (6 marks) looks for an accurate, clearly argued analysis of the concept, backed by one specific example from your thematic study.
Say which causes were long-term or short-term and show how they interacted.
- Listing causes in a row. Explain how each one connects to the others.
- Calling the trigger "the cause". A trigger only works because of the conditions around it.
- Stopping at the event. Consequences are part of the concept, and they can become later causes.
Check your understanding
1. Explain the difference between a long-term cause and a short-term cause, using one example. [3]
2. Analyse how one consequence of an event you have studied became a cause of a later development. [4]
3. To what extent is it helpful to call the assassination at Sarajevo "the cause" of the First World War? [6]